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Job market: half full or half empty?

The strength of May’s employment figures surprised many experts, with non-farm payrolls adding 390,000 workers.

The June report is due July 8 and economists expect a deceleration to a gain of around 270,000, according to a Bloomberg survey.

This would represent one of the smallest increases in the economic recovery which began in May 2020. But it is well above the trend of the 10 years preceding the covid pandemic, which began in March 2020.

A figure close to the consensus would be “more of a natural slowdown than a loosening of the economy,” Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, told Bloomberg.

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